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NSF Three City Heat and Electrical Failure Adaptation Study 

Georgia Institute of Technology, Arizona State University, University of Michigan

The Three City Heat and Electrical Failure Adaptation Study (3HEAT) is a National Science Foundation project focused on the human health risks of heat exposure during periods of electrical grid inoperability.  With the frequency of hazardous weather events increasing across the United States, combined with a rapid increase in the number of major electrical grid failure events, the likelihood of concurrent extreme weather and blackout events – characterized by our work as a compound climate and infrastructure event – is rising.  In the last few years alone, major compound climate and infrastructure events have unfolded in numerous states as wildfires, hurricanes, intense winter storms, and heat waves have triggered widespread blackout events, leaving millions of US residents without access to electricity for cooling or heating, as well as access to drinking water, during periods of extreme temperature exposure. Here you will find a series of datasets associated with the 3HEAT project, study publications, and media coverage of our results.

 Percent (%) of residential structures categorized by heat index class during a simulated historical heat wave event (left panel) and a simulated concurrent heat wave and electrical grid failure event (right panel) (Stone et al., 2021).

3HEAT Published Studies to Date

A Methodological Assessment of Extreme Heat Mortality Modeling and Heat Vulnerability Mapping in Dallas, Texas

Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041 – 2070

Modeling and comparing central and room air conditioning ownership and cold season in home thermal comfort using the American Housing Survey

Climate change and temperature extremes: a review of heat- and cold-related morbidity and mortality concerns of municipalities

Efficacy of cool roofs at reducing pedestrian-level air temperature during projected 21st century heatwaves in Atlanta, Detroit, and Phoenix (USA)

Heat-Related Illness Is Associated with Lack of Air Conditioning and Pre-Existing Health Problems in Detroit, Michigan, USA: A Community-Based Participatory Co-Analysis of Survey Data

How race, ethnicity, and income moderate the relationship between urban vegetation and physical activity in the United States

Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate: a systematic review

Longer-Term Outdoor Temperatures and Health Effects: A Review

Mapping Human Vulnerability to Extreme Heat: A Critical Assessment of Heat Vulnerability Indices Created Using Principal Components Analysis

MI-Environment: Geospatial patterns and inequality of relative heat stress vulnerability in Michigan

Micrometeorological determinants of pedestrian thermal exposure during record-breaking heat in Tempe, Arizona: Introducing the MaRTy observational platform

Modeling and comparing central and room air conditioning ownership and cold-season in-home thermal comfort using the American Housing Survey

Passive survivability of buildings under changing urban climates across eight US cities

Shifting from “Community-Placed” to “Community-Based” Research to Advance Health Equity: A Case Study of the Heatwaves, Housing, and Health: Increasing Climate Resiliency in Detroit (HHH) Partnership

Social and behavioral determinants of indoor temperatures in air-conditioned homes

The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities

The Observed Effects of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics on Near-Surface Air Temperature and Energy Balance

Thermal impacts of built and vegetated environments on local microclimates in an Urban University campus

Time series analysis of total and direct associations between high temperatures and preterm births in Detroit, Michigan

Reader Interactions

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Affiliations

Georgia Tech | College of Design | School of City and Regional Planning

Sponsors

National Science Foundation | National Institute of Health | US Forest Service

Stone's new book, Radical Adaptation: Transforming Cities for a Climate Changed World, is now available from Cambridge University Press. Read a book synopsis on Medium.

Recent News

Resilience or Recklessness? Discussion of retreat in Los Angeles on NPR

Radical Adaptation selected as a top urban planning book of 2024

Climate Grief of City Life_The Atlantic

Washington Post uses UCL study to estimate deaths during a Houston heat wave/blackout

Heat waves: Why your AC cannot save you anymore

The heat wave scenario that keeps climate scientists up at night

Stone delivers talk on Radical Adaptation at Carter Presidential Library

Retreat First, Then Adapt in Noema Magazine

Deadly Heat in the Workplace: UCL study cited in New York Times

Radical Adaptation featured on Radio Ecoshock Podcast

Radical Adaptation: Unlearning How to Plan a City

UCL releases Heat Tolerance Index for 2023

Stone featured in New York Times article on urban heat risk

Approaching the limits of climate viability in cites

UCL featured in New York Times article on rising Sunbelt heat risk

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in New York Times

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in Washington Post

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in Wired Magazine

UCL Releases Study of Atlanta's Neighborhoods Most Vulnerable to Climate Change

Stone featured in PBS NOVA documentary: Weathering the Future

Louisville's plan to combat urban heat could take a century at its current pace -- NPR

Conversations with Cabrera: Climate Action

Georgians without air conditioning endure dangerous heat

How tech can help paint a clearer picture of extreme heat in Atlanta – WABE

Facing a sizzling summer, large parts of the U.S. risk blackouts, government agency warns - CBS News

UCL study featured on Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Yang's Georgia Tech studio applies new analytics to reduce flood risk, increase resiliency in Tokyo

Mallen interviewed on Dense City podcast - "Lights Out: Climate Change and Infrastructure Risk

Hot Summer Nights Get Hotter, and More Dangerous - New York Times

Atlanta's heat wave and blackout risk in Atlanta Magazine

UCL work featured in the New York Times

UCL work featured in the Wall Street Journal

Heat hits people of color the hardest -- Washington Post

UCL study featured in New York Times

Stone on the Daily Show: Arizona in the Grip of Climate Change

Stone interviewed for New York Magazine story on adaptation

UCL study featured in the Atlantic

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