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Tree Hardiness Zones

Hardiness zones, defined as the average annual minimum temperature in which a plant can grow, are the current standard for arborists and gardeners to guide tree selection. Urban trees provide a myriad of services, including the ability to effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect through shading and evapotranspiration. With anthropogenic warming, hardiness zones are shifting northward over time, causing tree species to lose adaptation to parts of their historical range. As temperatures rise, some species of tree will no longer remain adapted to their urban settings. For the 50 most populous metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), we are determining decadal hardiness zone shifts and how the associated changes in tree species distribution influence urban tree selection. Our ultimate goal is to assist cities in selecting suitable trees for changing climatic conditions.

Publications

“Climate adaptation in cities: What trees are suitable for urban heat management? ”
Lanza, Kevin, Stone, Brian. 2016. “Climate adaptation in cities: What trees are suitable for urban heat management?” Landscape and Urban Planning, 153: 74-82.

Urban Climate Change

How rapidly are large cities in the United States warming? This question is important for two reasons. First, extreme temperatures are responsible for more annual fatalities than all other forms of extreme weather combined, including earthquakes, tornadoes, and hurricanes. In a warming world, the public health threats of extreme heat are expected to intensify. Second, annual analyses of mean global temperature change omit urban weather station data, as urban temperature trends are known to reflect both background warming rates and localized warming anomalies, such as the urban heat island effect. As a result, global estimates of climate change are likely to underestimate rates of warming in the very places where most of the global population now resides: cities.

Through this study, we analyzed more than five decades of meteorological observations recorded by weather stations located within and in proximity to 50 of the most populous U.S. cities to measure the rate of change in “urban heat island” intensity – localized hotspots created by urban infrastructure and waste heat emissions – in each decade between 1951 and 2006.

The results of this analysis suggest that the actual magnitude of warming in urban areas is likely to be much greater than that forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), greatly elevating the need for climate-responsive design strategies to counteract the enhanced impacts of warming in large cities.

Publications:

“Managing Climate Change in Cities: Will Climate Action Plans Work?”
Stone, Brian Jr., Vargo, Jason, & Habeeb, Dana. 2012. Managing Climate Change in Cities: Will Climate Action Plans Work? Landscape and Urban Planning, 107(3): 263–271.

“Urban Heat Management in Louisville, Kentucky: A Framework for Climate Adaptation Planning.”
Stone, Brian, Lanza, Kevin, Mallen, Evan, Vargo, Jason, Russell, Armistead. 2019. “Urban Heat Management in Louisville, Kentucky: A Framework for Climate Adaptation Planning.” Journal of Planning Education and Research, DOI: d0o.i.1o1rg7/71/00.17137974/05763X9415968X719287194214.

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Affiliations

Georgia Tech | College of Design | School of City and Regional Planning

Sponsors

National Science Foundation | National Institute of Health | US Forest Service

Stone's book,The City and the Coming Climate: Climate Change in the Places We Live (Cambridge University Press), is available from Amazon.

Stone's book, The City and the Coming Climate: Climate Change in the Places We Live (Cambridge University Press), is available from Amazon.

Recent News

Georgians without air conditioning endure dangerous heat

How tech can help paint a clearer picture of extreme heat in Atlanta – WABE

Facing a sizzling summer, large parts of the U.S. risk blackouts, government agency warns - CBS News

UCL Presentation to Georgia Municipal Association

UCL study featured on Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Yang's Georgia Tech studio applies new analytics to reduce flood risk, increase resiliency in Tokyo

Mallen interviewed on Dense City podcast episode, "Lights Out: Climate Change and Infrastructure Risk

Hot Summer Nights Get Hotter, and More Dangerous - New York Times

NYT Article: Biden Administration to Draft Rules on Workplace Heat Dangers

Everything Under the Sun Podcast, "Blackouts are increasing due to severe weather"

Wirecutter Article: Why I Douse My Whole Body With Cold Water Every Night

Atlanta's heat wave and blackout risk in Atlanta Magazine

UCL work featured in the New York Times

UCL work featured in the Wall Street Journal

Heat hits people of color the hardest -- Washington Post

Mallen interviewed for story on "heat officer" position in Miami

Radio Ecoshock Podcast featuring UCL work on heat waves and blackouts

Stone interviewed for CBS story on heat waves and blackouts

Extreme heat risks may be widely underestimated

UCL study featured in New York Times

Stone on the Daily Show: Arizona in the Grip of Climate Change

Stone interviewed for New York Magazine story on adaptation

UCL study featured in the Atlantic

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