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Tree Hardiness Zones

Hardiness zones, defined as the average annual minimum temperature in which a plant can grow, are the current standard for arborists and gardeners to guide tree selection. Urban trees provide a myriad of services, including the ability to effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect through shading and evapotranspiration. With anthropogenic warming, hardiness zones are shifting northward over time, causing tree species to lose adaptation to parts of their historical range. As temperatures rise, some species of tree will no longer remain adapted to their urban settings. For the 50 most populous metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), we are determining decadal hardiness zone shifts and how the associated changes in tree species distribution influence urban tree selection. Our ultimate goal is to assist cities in selecting suitable trees for changing climatic conditions.

Publications

“Climate adaptation in cities: What trees are suitable for urban heat management? ”
Lanza, Kevin, Stone, Brian. 2016. “Climate adaptation in cities: What trees are suitable for urban heat management?” Landscape and Urban Planning, 153: 74-82.

Urban Climate Change

How rapidly are large cities in the United States warming? This question is important for two reasons. First, extreme temperatures are responsible for more annual fatalities than all other forms of extreme weather combined, including earthquakes, tornadoes, and hurricanes. In a warming world, the public health threats of extreme heat are expected to intensify. Second, annual analyses of mean global temperature change omit urban weather station data, as urban temperature trends are known to reflect both background warming rates and localized warming anomalies, such as the urban heat island effect. As a result, global estimates of climate change are likely to underestimate rates of warming in the very places where most of the global population now resides: cities.

Through this study, we analyzed more than five decades of meteorological observations recorded by weather stations located within and in proximity to 50 of the most populous U.S. cities to measure the rate of change in “urban heat island” intensity – localized hotspots created by urban infrastructure and waste heat emissions – in each decade between 1951 and 2006.

The results of this analysis suggest that the actual magnitude of warming in urban areas is likely to be much greater than that forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), greatly elevating the need for climate-responsive design strategies to counteract the enhanced impacts of warming in large cities.

Publications:

“Managing Climate Change in Cities: Will Climate Action Plans Work?”
Stone, Brian Jr., Vargo, Jason, & Habeeb, Dana. 2012. Managing Climate Change in Cities: Will Climate Action Plans Work? Landscape and Urban Planning, 107(3): 263–271.

“Urban Heat Management in Louisville, Kentucky: A Framework for Climate Adaptation Planning.”
Stone, Brian, Lanza, Kevin, Mallen, Evan, Vargo, Jason, Russell, Armistead. 2019. “Urban Heat Management in Louisville, Kentucky: A Framework for Climate Adaptation Planning.” Journal of Planning Education and Research, DOI: d0o.i.1o1rg7/71/00.17137974/05763X9415968X719287194214.

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Affiliations

Georgia Tech | College of Design | School of City and Regional Planning

Sponsors

National Science Foundation | National Institute of Health | US Forest Service

Stone's new book, Radical Adaptation: Transforming Cities for a Climate Changed World, is now available from Cambridge University Press. Read a book synopsis on Medium.

Recent News

Resilience or Recklessness? Discussion of retreat in Los Angeles on NPR

Radical Adaptation selected as a top urban planning book of 2024

Climate Grief of City Life_The Atlantic

Washington Post uses UCL study to estimate deaths during a Houston heat wave/blackout

Heat waves: Why your AC cannot save you anymore

The heat wave scenario that keeps climate scientists up at night

Stone delivers talk on Radical Adaptation at Carter Presidential Library

Retreat First, Then Adapt in Noema Magazine

Deadly Heat in the Workplace: UCL study cited in New York Times

Radical Adaptation featured on Radio Ecoshock Podcast

Radical Adaptation: Unlearning How to Plan a City

UCL releases Heat Tolerance Index for 2023

Stone featured in New York Times article on urban heat risk

Approaching the limits of climate viability in cites

UCL featured in New York Times article on rising Sunbelt heat risk

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in New York Times

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in Washington Post

UCL Study on Blackout + Heat Wave Risk in Wired Magazine

UCL Releases Study of Atlanta's Neighborhoods Most Vulnerable to Climate Change

Stone featured in PBS NOVA documentary: Weathering the Future

Louisville's plan to combat urban heat could take a century at its current pace -- NPR

Conversations with Cabrera: Climate Action

Georgians without air conditioning endure dangerous heat

How tech can help paint a clearer picture of extreme heat in Atlanta – WABE

Facing a sizzling summer, large parts of the U.S. risk blackouts, government agency warns - CBS News

UCL study featured on Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Yang's Georgia Tech studio applies new analytics to reduce flood risk, increase resiliency in Tokyo

Mallen interviewed on Dense City podcast - "Lights Out: Climate Change and Infrastructure Risk

Hot Summer Nights Get Hotter, and More Dangerous - New York Times

Atlanta's heat wave and blackout risk in Atlanta Magazine

UCL work featured in the New York Times

UCL work featured in the Wall Street Journal

Heat hits people of color the hardest -- Washington Post

UCL study featured in New York Times

Stone on the Daily Show: Arizona in the Grip of Climate Change

Stone interviewed for New York Magazine story on adaptation

UCL study featured in the Atlantic

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